The US election calls to a close

The superstitious amongst the Obama hopers wont like this, and no sensible political analyst would declare an election over, but folks this one has pretty much run its course. Obama should win, and should win comfortably. But when the media get to picking why, i think two issues might get overshadowed (esp if the economy keeps tanking): Making Obama a safe choice, and Obama's superior ground game.

Number One - The election was always going to be a referendum on Obama. He is the most talented and interesting new politician in a generation if not the last 50 years. He has a lot to attract people to him, but there was always that sense of otherness and difference that made Americans wary. (And led some to start calling him a terrorist if not just a n**ger –not sure if your work will censor/care about your emails-) . He has done more than enough (although its taken a long time to show) people that he is calm, confident and not a risky choice. Rudd had to do the same thing in OZ, Obama had to do it whilst being the first black man, with a funny name, a foreign background and only a few years in the public spotlight. But especially with the Presidential debates which are natural equalisers putting both candidates on the same stage, letting people look from one to the other, he has held his ground and proven his character. He’s pandered a bit, might not be as progressive as some of us would like, but he is a genuinely inspiring candidate and offers a fantastic potential for America to change its path and direction. The simple fact of a black man winning the US presidency will do absolute wonders to the USA’s standing in the world. Only 9% of Americans think the US is going in the right direction as a country (the lowest in polling history). Obama is far and away the best candidate to bring change. (Which has been his slogan from the very beginning well over a year ago. He’s so good and right even McCain has tried to recently pick up the tag of ‘change’ in his adds – Though dropped it and swapped slogans constantly, indicating the lack of a clear argument for why McCain wants to be president other than the fact he thinks he is entitled.


Number Two Obama’s ground game – This hasn’t got much attention, and probably wont in the pundits final analysis of why Obama won. (Esp from the craptacular Australian pundits who’s work is always 48 hours behind the US cycle and usually of a very very poor quality. You should ask your Margaret why that is. I’m genuinely puzzled given the interest in Australia why they cant do better than any kid with an internet connection and a handful of blog/news sites bookmarked) Anyway, Obama began work as a community organiser. He like Rudd doesn’t care so much about being seen to ‘win’ the daily news cycle, but he does care about organising offices, volunteers and voter registration drives (along with turnout on the day). He’s been doing this not only in close states but many that were safe republican (look for Virginia or Indiana, either could fall to him in the election). His campaign has been able to talk to a remarkable 40%+ of the early voters. He has thousands more offices around the country than mccain, all calling people, door knocking, working out how to drive old mrs simmons down to the polling booth on the day. (us has voluntary voting). He has simply outorganised McCain. (Bush had a good organisation in 2004, prepared years in advance, which is a large reason he beat Kerry, McCain doesn’t have much support in the republican party normally (which is why he had to choose the farce of Sarah Palin to keep the evangelicals happy), and he didn’t get around to organising his state by state operations till late (nor does he have as much money as Obama). As such, McCain can get on national TV each day and dominate the story, and Obama will still kick his ass comfortably by having his campaign talk to as many voters as possible. Like the ‘otherness’ factor, this is a very slow burn process, that has taken time to see an impact, but the economy tanking has helped crystallise both factors for Obama. So much so that you get amazing quotes like this one turning up : “An Obama supporter, who canvassed for the candidate in the working-class, white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, sends over an account that, in various forms, I've heard a lot in recent weeks. "What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."

A month ago McCain was 4 points ahead nationally, and everyone was saying Palin was going to win the election for him. Today she’s mocked and disliked by most people in America, and Obama is between 6-10 points ahead nationally and in key states. (Indeed if it were held today he could lose every state polling closely and still comfortably win the election). So a month is a fucking long time in politics. But there are too many fundamentals in place that have just about locked most voters into place, and the factors like Obama being seen as a safe pick, and his ground game will only get better and better with each passing day.