Turnbulls backers.

I've been on the look out to see who changed in the election to support Turnbull, given the public disagreement by powerful conservative faction chiefs Nick Minchin and Peter Costello

This isn't promising news:

Those conservative NSW MPs who switched their votes from Brendan Nelson on Tuesday cited the extraordinary "cut-through" of the US election's new wild-card entry Sarah Palin as their inspiration to throw the dice with Turnbull....NSW conservatives, who include Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and the north-west Sydney MP Alex Hawke, were persuaded on Monday night by the charismatic Turnbull, 53, that he was their best chance to win the 2010 election

So the conservative wing of the Liberals (is there any other?) is against turnbull, whilst the nutty far right wing is now for him ? Not exactly promising.

But whilst I'm sure this storyline has been inflated by the columnists desire to play up Palin (See her last effort here), it is evidence of pretty abysmal political thinking. New people always grab the public attention and usually after 1-2 stage managed presentations manage to see their public approval ratings rise to heights most leaders would literally sacrifice staff on the alter of the polls for.

But it always comes down, Mark Latham had 64% approval when he began talking about early childhood reading. It almost halved by election day when people realised he had little else and wasn't all that capable anyway.

Palin likewise is already in her own slide into invisability

In a September 4 Rasmussen poll, Palin’s favorability was 1 point higher than McCain’s or Obama’s. Nine days later, according to a Sept. 13 poll by Daily Kos, it is slightly lower than theirs (49% vs. 55%; however, given the margin of error, it isn’t conclusively lower).

Now whilst Palin is 6 weeks from the election and could still limp over the line with the help of a Teleprompter and an almost complete refusal to talk to the press, that wont work in Australia.
For a start the next election is at least 2 years away, and secondly and most importantly, Turnbull has to wade into the bear pit of our parliament day after day, to respond to the government, and then walk outside and fight off the press.

He will only keep those brand new polls numbers long term if he is a very capable, and forthright leader. Which he could be, though early indications of his political skills (from the failure of the republican campaign, to his inability to prevent the environment being anything other than a mega-strong issue for Labor) suggest he still has some learning to do.

And if his backers picked him instead because they too wanted that short relief of the bubble of newness, 2 years out from an election, then clearly they will not be the ones to know how to guide him to victory.

There were 43 others who voted for Turnbull in that party room. Lets hope he makes it a point to consult with them instead, and not those seduced by the same logic that drove the last desperate roll of the dice by the McCain campaign to pick Sarah Palin.