Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Turnbull to the helm

I think we all knew this day would come. After 4 years in parliament, Malcom Tunbull is now leader of the Liberal Party.

Whilst this mercifully euthanises the aspirations of Dr Nelson, (and seeming career, he too is going to the back bench), the big story is what policy direction Turnbull will seek to impose on the party.

Though popular wisdom is that he needs to heal a divided party (he won 45-41), he did so over the clear public objections of the conservative power brokers Costello and Minchin(and one presumes Abbott). Turnbull needs to exploit this victory as quickly as possible to establish his own stamp on the party. Until he has Rudd on the ground and bloodied, Turnbull will never be as strong as he is now. There's no way he will be challenged for months, and the party selected him because they want to win, and public carping would be the sure fire way to undermine their own rationale. Finally Turnbull can present himself as leading the first real post-Howard Liberal party, and thereby sideline those who complain as stuck in the past.

Nelson, Costello, Minchin, Abbott and the conservatives still wear the failure and stigma of the Howard government. Turnbull and only Turnbull can change that image of the liberals, and the quicker he moves to do so rhetorically the better for his partys chances at the next election.

Turnbull now has the chance to build a real liberal party. In economics and socially(At least ending the stigma on homosexuality and immigration if not radically shifting policies). There's great forces against it, but he seemed to grasp immediately in his party room address talking about the value of freedom and describing the liberals as a "party of opportunity in a land of opportunity".

Australia is still a pretty conservative country, but with the forces of globalisation and the breakdown of the Howard battler coalition, we're likely to see our two parties slide into more clear 'liberal' v 'conservative' grounds. One seeking open economics, tolerant social, and embracing change, the other seeking protection from economic and social winds, especially those from overseas.

We cant say for sure that the Liberals will actually take this path, being still tied to the agrarian socialists economically, and the christian right socially. But the election of Turnbull sure gives them a chance to take that option, and push Labor with its unions, shallow support for Free Trade, and Rudds Christian conservatism to be the party of closed borders and minds.

I think its time to turn back on question time, its sure to get interesting from now on.

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