The Fall and Fall of Tony Abbott

Alternatly I was going to title this post: The perils of boxing as a young man. For only its many blows to the head, affecting his internal sense of balance can explain Tony Abbot's strange claims tonight:

TONY ABBOTT has attacked any taxpayer-funded paid maternity scheme that delivers more help to working mothers than stay-at-home mums.
In response to today's Productivity Commission recommendation of a new taxpayer-funded scheme offering 18 weeks' paid leave to working mums, the Opposition families spokesman told The Australian Online he is concerned that women not in the paid workforce will miss out.

"I have real issues with the government giving women in the paid workforce more than they give mothers in the unpaid workforce,” Mr Abbott said.

"I don't think stay-at-home mothers should be classed as second hand citizens."

The draft maternity leave report recommends 18 weeks of paid leave at the minimum wage for working women - about $11,000 for every child. Women not in the workforce would only secure the equivalent to the baby bonus of about $5000.

It would cost $1.3 billion or a net cost of about $400 million after the baby bonus was abolished and the savings rolled into the new scheme.

Right, because getting $5'000 to do exactly what you were doing previously, is the sign of a "second-class citizen".

Abbott is someone i've always peversely liked, much to the annoyance of my more left wing friends. I may disagree with just about everything he says, but he is someone who holds clear, passionate views about improving the country. He rarely uses his faith as an argument for his positions (the RU-486 was a notable slip up). And he is involved in many organisations servicng their causes, from the volunteer firemen through to local charities. He's smart, articulate, and ambitious.

But he has a political tin ear. That he has risen so highly is slightly amazing until you see the mentors behind his rise, first Hewson as an advisor, then later Howard who pushed him all the way into the Cabinet. Indeed you have to wager Howard was seeking to groom Abbott to take over instead of Costello, but a combination of Costello's supporters, Howards own love of the job, and Abbotts faltering political skills (only barely helping electorally despite the billions thrown into the 2004 'medicare plus' policy, the Ru-486 debacle, and numerous other slip ups. By the time he was insulting Roxon on mike for the 2007 election, everyone knew his fall from grace was complete.) Time after time, he has either failed to take advantage of issues, or made himself out to be the bad guy in a situtation, even if many in the community would agree with his position.

In 2003, Michael Duffy wrote one of the best books on Mark Latham. In perhaps his wisest move he made it a duel book about Latham, and Abbott.


Unless Tony's out rallying forces now against Turbull, it's likely Abbott will never be PM. And thats probably in the countries best interest, but for someone with so much obvious talent and genuine public service, it's intriguing to see so much of the damage to their career being entirely self-inflicted. Tonight's effort, which even The Australian(!) is slamming him for, is just one more highlight on his fall.

When you have to speak but have no words

I had thought that this was the dumbest political comment I would read today. From the Opposition Leader:

"To say that Australia is light years away from the economic crisis in the United States suggests that, you know, we're, well light years suggests millions of miles away," the Liberal leader told ABC Radio.

You cant fault him for his command of the details. But our Prime Minister saw the opportunity to strike:

Mr Rudd rebuked Mr Turnbull for his comments, saying that when there is significant stress on financial institutions, it is important that political leaders speak responsibly.

"I therefore would strongly suggest to Mr Turnbull that in making comments about the considered position taken by the governor of the Reserve bank, our position relative to those of other countries, that he should think twice before making comments which separate him in any way from what the governor is saying," the Prime Minister said.

And what was the Opposition Leaders henious crime which "seperates him... from what the governor is saying":

Mr Turnbull - "I would say our economy ... is stronger, it is more resilient, our lending practices have been more prudent, our banks are profitable and better capitalised than those in other markets, in particular than in the United States."

A fine effort by our two chumps in charge. One showing his time well spent as a kid at space camp, the other criticisng him for being both positive and correct. This one goes on points to Turnbull, though Rudd is probably chuffed at his effort.

Turnbulls backers.

I've been on the look out to see who changed in the election to support Turnbull, given the public disagreement by powerful conservative faction chiefs Nick Minchin and Peter Costello

This isn't promising news:

Those conservative NSW MPs who switched their votes from Brendan Nelson on Tuesday cited the extraordinary "cut-through" of the US election's new wild-card entry Sarah Palin as their inspiration to throw the dice with Turnbull....NSW conservatives, who include Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and the north-west Sydney MP Alex Hawke, were persuaded on Monday night by the charismatic Turnbull, 53, that he was their best chance to win the 2010 election

So the conservative wing of the Liberals (is there any other?) is against turnbull, whilst the nutty far right wing is now for him ? Not exactly promising.

But whilst I'm sure this storyline has been inflated by the columnists desire to play up Palin (See her last effort here), it is evidence of pretty abysmal political thinking. New people always grab the public attention and usually after 1-2 stage managed presentations manage to see their public approval ratings rise to heights most leaders would literally sacrifice staff on the alter of the polls for.

But it always comes down, Mark Latham had 64% approval when he began talking about early childhood reading. It almost halved by election day when people realised he had little else and wasn't all that capable anyway.

Palin likewise is already in her own slide into invisability

In a September 4 Rasmussen poll, Palin’s favorability was 1 point higher than McCain’s or Obama’s. Nine days later, according to a Sept. 13 poll by Daily Kos, it is slightly lower than theirs (49% vs. 55%; however, given the margin of error, it isn’t conclusively lower).

Now whilst Palin is 6 weeks from the election and could still limp over the line with the help of a Teleprompter and an almost complete refusal to talk to the press, that wont work in Australia.
For a start the next election is at least 2 years away, and secondly and most importantly, Turnbull has to wade into the bear pit of our parliament day after day, to respond to the government, and then walk outside and fight off the press.

He will only keep those brand new polls numbers long term if he is a very capable, and forthright leader. Which he could be, though early indications of his political skills (from the failure of the republican campaign, to his inability to prevent the environment being anything other than a mega-strong issue for Labor) suggest he still has some learning to do.

And if his backers picked him instead because they too wanted that short relief of the bubble of newness, 2 years out from an election, then clearly they will not be the ones to know how to guide him to victory.

There were 43 others who voted for Turnbull in that party room. Lets hope he makes it a point to consult with them instead, and not those seduced by the same logic that drove the last desperate roll of the dice by the McCain campaign to pick Sarah Palin.